Although as the pandemic fades into a lot of peoples rear-vision mirror, this Labor shine is also starting to fade. Support James. Unfortunately for him, there are almost no marginal Labor seats available in QLD. Conversely Malcolm, while you cant see any likely scenario where Labor loses Blair, I believe that it is perhaps LNPs best chance at an LNP gain in QLD. Seat-by-seat guide to the 2022 federal election FEDERAL ELECTION 2022. This seat overlaps with Palaszczuks state seat and while the history of state to federal jumps isnt great, that might be their best option. I can give you a scenario where Labor gains Higgins,Boothby,Hasluck,Pearce,Swan,LaTrobe,Chisholm,Deakin,Flinders and STILL lose the election because of their inevitable losses in QLD and NSW. Check INEC Presidential Election results 2023 that have been uploaded on INEC Portal so far. Blair Labor MP Shayne Neuman has been difficult to dislodge and avoided being thrown out in 2013. With a rare QLD leader of the ALP, I wasnt thinking 2013 was a high water mark for LNP in QLD, but it was in NSW. You have entered an incorrect email address! State govt only survived on the covid vote. The race on election night will between Labor and the Greens to see who comes second and will be the beneficiary of the other's preferences. Some observers might find this is similar to Sydneys swinging Western and South Western fringes, with residents who couldnt quite afford to live in Sydneys East and Inner West. A Trybooking page for the campaign launch initially said: "Join with our warrior Senator Amanda Stoker & Senator Paul Scarr to launch the campaign for Chris Green the LNP Candidate for Oxley. Voters rewarded the incumbent Fraser government in 1975, Indeed 1996 was the first time since 1949 an incumbent Labor government lost. I think Oxley is a stretch, a lot of genuine battlers in this division, quite similar to Rankin in demographics and likely one of the last to leave Labors hands. Kathleen Irene (Oxley) Wiggins. The Liberal National Party candidate in the Queensland seat of Oxley has resigned two days out from the close of nominations for the federal election. Mum Camerons being a dick (head) again !. An official website of the United States government. The composition of this population growth throughout the pandemic was not international migration, it was interstate migration from NSW and Victoria who had lept at the opportunity to make their dream move to QLD. year at Oxley Christian College. Delegate to the Australian Labor Party National Conference from 2001. I see you say ALP aim to hold on here on other pages. On February 19, 2018, Pennsylvania's Supreme Court released a new congressional map for Pennsylvania. Hanson contested the new seat of Blair, which now covered Ipswich, which had previously been included in Oxley. Dianne Stokes Candidate #2 for the Senate. I would NEVER be so mild !. For all the brouhaha this will remain a Labor seat. The Coalition went to the 2019 election under a third Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, who survived a 2.3% swing to secure a narrow majority with 48 seats, losing two seats to Labor and four to the cross-bench. History Federal MPs. Interested in exploring whether you might be our candidate. Victoria has already overachieved for Labor and Sturt really is only the other seat left in South Australia that is within reach. View Original Notice? This allowed Pauline Hanson to fill the void in the region, elected in Oxley (which at the time encompassed a lot of Blairs boundaries). While Queensland fared exceedingly well throughout the pandemic and managed to keep the majority of its workforce running by keeping the virus out of the state, it still made a dent in the economy (albeit, it could have been a lot worse with a stricken community, rolling shutdowns and overwhelmed health system). Creating jobs, lower taxes, better health, education. Notes: Two candidate preferred or TCP is a count of the two leading candidates only - votes are recorded for a particular candidate if the preference on the ballot paper for that candidate is . Im not even a member of any political party but traditionally I want Labor to win just not under its current direction and leader. Our Candidates. You have entered an incorrect email address! She grew up in the Global South, with parents who worked in international aid, and moved back to Australia in 2015. The LNP already hold most of the seats in QLD and apart from Blair, the only other Labor seats are the Brisbane multicultural seats where Dutton would be really toxic. Party resignations cost the government its majority in early 2021, compounded by the loss of Bega to Labor at a by-election in February 2022. Even then, Id be surprised to see the Libs not shift into gear (in Blair at least) as election day nears. Australian Election Archive A comprehensive archive of federal elections statistics since 1901, and state and territory statisticssince 1990. How ridiculous & completely absurd I also believe that the Chinese Australian community of Moreton (the largest in Queensland) are a conservative leaning community (economically and socially), especially as they have become more established and affluent. If you want new real leadership material, stop protecting dead-weight, open up preselections, give fairly-preselected candidates the backing they deserve and let them *make* some safe seats. House of Representatives Standing: Tax and Revenue served from 15.9.2016 to 11.4.2019; Procedure served from 10.10.2016 to 11.4.2022; Health, Aged Care and Sport served from 22.7.2019 to 11.4.2022; Appropriations and Administration served as Chair from 26.7.2022 to present; Selection served as Chair from 26.7.2022 to present, Joint Select: Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse served from 7.12.2017 to 2.4.2019; Implementation of the National Redress Scheme served from 24.10.2019 to 11.4.2022, Joint Standing: Electoral Matters served from 15.9.2016 to 11.4.2022, Joint Statutory: Broadcasting of Parliamentary Proceedings served as Chair from 26.7.2022 to present. Your correct. Sound jobs now available in Oxley ACT 2903. And for all of winediamond deriding of senior state Ministers in Labor (Cameron Dick, Steven Miles etc) they still continue to easily spank their state LNP opponents every election. One-in-five candidate tweets in 2022 have mentioned race, abortion, education or the economy. if Labor lose they should parachute Annastacia into this seat. Page. the coalition are winning 90+ seats they might come close to 100. Worsteling is a retail worker and research assistant currently studying psychology at the University of Queensland. Booths have been divided into three areas. It wouldve been more useful picking somebody from WA or Victoria but I suppose there wasnt many options left anymore. WD stuck in lockdown in Warringah presently mate (there are worse places to be). The 2022 Labor candidate is Rebecca Fanning,. Interestingly Oxley did retain for Labor in the Fraser years (Someone tell me what the boundaries were when Bill Hayden held this seat) Everyone assumed 2013 was a high watermark for the coalition and it was not. They were furious at the Coalition, who arguably made their jobs vulnerable via neoliberal policies. Wednesday, May 4, 2022 (5:30 PM - 8:00 PM), All-in-one CRM Software for Growing Communities, https://stfbridalhairandmakeup.simdif.com/. I doubt theyd lose seats to the UAP/PHON anyway. His party sent out fliers to almost everyone here. Furtive Lawngnome There needs to be a leader who is prepared to call time on cretins. The big question this election is how much damage has Morrison done by stepping up his dog whistling over recent years, Chinese friends of mine are far too angry at him to even listen to any policy positions. Ls. cheers WD, Ben AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time). When Australians head to the polls they will vote for their preferred party candidate for their federal area. Hayden later served as a minister in the Hawke Government before becoming Governor-General in 1989. Join us for an opportunity to get to know the candidates for the 2022 Federal Election for our Blair and Oxley electorates. Couldnt agree with you more. Re-elected 2019 and 2022. @Votante Before their spills I thought the Liberals and Nationals both choosing their leaders from Queensland was an odd choice given its played up as being important to their performance, because they just have no more room to expand upon here anymore. Ive set up a generic election open thread to go up in the morning. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. I dont think Scott Morrison has done any campaigning here. Labor doesnt have a huge majority but there are some Queensland seats up for grabs in 2025. Each candidate will give a. The LNP are basically aiming to hold their own seats rather than win any Labor .Little effort going into contesting Blair,Lilley or Moreton by the LNP. Elected history-making governors. Unless of course you mean the LNP specifically in QLD; its hard to tell on this site since we all use the terms interchanegably! McDermott was part of . Facebook; Twitter; Senator Matt Canavan. Booths in Somerset local government area have been grouped together. The bookies must seem to think the vote will blow back hard in Labors favor in this seat. The seat was first won in 1949 by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Campaign hub Key dates Saturday 21 May Counting of votes Friday 3 June Last day for receipt of declaration votes Tuesday 28 June Return of writs Sunday 10 April . Labor hold. This story is written in a personal capacity. The Greens candidate Elizabeth Watson-Brown is a well known architect and has appeal to the middle class voters of the electorate. Even if its somehow a close election 20+ seats could change hands between the 2 parties. Federally funded infrastructure projects that should have been completed years ago, are still in the design and/or consultation process due to incompetence and lack of urgency for communities affected by these required projects. Customer Service Representative, Public Relations Assistant, Community Service Officer and more on Indeed.com The only seat I think Labor could hold in QLD is Rankin, But that will be close as well. I think LNP sense long term opportunity in both seats. Councillor, Richlands Ward, Brisbane City Council from 2008 to 2016. In public opinion polls, the economy has consistently ranked among the most important issues for registered voters ahead of Election Day. Blair was super marginal at this election because Labor suffered a huge swing here and in most of QLD in 2019. Ryan Spencer Candidates Danielle Mutton ( Greens) Michelle Jaques ( Liberal Democrats) Quinton Cunningham ( United Australia) Liz Suduk ( One Nation) Shayne Neumann ( Labor) Maria Pitman ( Australian Values) Angela Lowery ( Animal Justice) Sam Biggins ( Liberal National) Assessment Across the country voting patterns confirm that people want their MP to represent the community rather than the big parties. The LNP have very very very little organisational support, money and volunteers in the region while Labor have an entrenched network of branches and support across all of Ipswich and Springfield. Canberra ACT 2600, Electorate map Moved Permanently. I can tell one Dick, from another (Dick) !. Theres supposed to be multiple electorate constituencies. If you have any questions please contact Leila Stewart at mail@gscc.com.au or +61 434035020. Election funding Electoral law backgrounders Authorising electoral communication Learn about elections Delivering an election Managing the electoral roll Altering electoral divisions Determining ballot paper order Planning voting services Counting the votes Voting and the Government The three levels of government When elections are held I would have thought as a Labor cheerleader that you would have had some interest in getting rid of timeservers, & lackeys ? Let alone a HACK How dare you ? cheers WD Stronger Communities Round 8 - EOIs now Open! We pay our respects to the people, the cultures and the elders past, present and emerging. 2022 0 145. The premier visiting Tokyo certainly wont help Labor either, It isnt an important trip, I dont care about the Olympics being held here it isnt important as pandemic recover. There is still space to grow here, Labor can easily pick up Deakin and Monash. Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson came third on primary votes, but overtook the ALP on Nationals preferences and then overtook Hanson on Labor preferences. In early 1983 Hayden resigned as leader and was replaced by Hawke, only hours before Malcolm Fraser called an early election. How insulting. Labor will probably hang on, but if the political realignment of blue collar voters towards the LNP continues they may well lose this sear. Watch the latest news on Channel 7 or stream for free on 7plus >>. Hayden faced a leadership threat from former ACTU president Bob Hawke, who had entered Parliament in 1980. Remember the lessons of 1993 and 2004 there is no such thing as invincibility in politics. After forming her own political party, Pauline Hanson's One Nation, Hanson contested and lost the newly created seat of Blair at the 1998 election. Create secure local jobs by investing in Fee-Free TAFE and more university places, and make your job more secure with better pay and conditions. A en I have found that increasingly in recent years the Chinese ethnic vote has increasingly been highly supportive of Red China. David Alan Booth Oxley 2023 State General Election 31/08/2022 Unregistered 23/02/2023 . Is that really necessary ? Gladys is the best NSW premier since Neville Wran. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. I live in the Blair electorate and have never heard of him. Its like Banks. Enter your details, then select 'Find' to display your results. from 2000 to 2004. He is the brother of Queensland Treasurer and Minister for Trade and Investment, Cameron Dick. They would have to do very poorly in Queensland to be in trouble here. (EDGAR Online via COMTEX) -- false 0001326110 0001326110 2023-02-15 2023-02-15 UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, DC 20549 FORM 8-K. It includes all of the Inala housing estate and the nearby newer estates of Forest Lake and Springfield, as well as the Centenary Suburbs of Middle Park, Mount Ommaney, Jindalee and Sinnamon Park. Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce might have other events you're interested in. Get breaking news alerts directly to your phone with our app. Deputy Leader of the Opposition, Brisbane City Council from 2008 to 2012. Who is mystery man Scarr? Industry. That said we are already seeing a trend of independent left leaning candidates eating into LNP seats in wealthier suburbs. As an example, The Greens is stating it will recommend preferencing Labor ahead of the Coalition at the 2022 Federal Election. . Then after this division inevitably gets redistributed with less of it encompassing the rural parts of South East Queensland, ALP regain. Oxley was the only Queensland electorate retained by Labor at the 1975 election, but was lost to Pauline Hanson at the 1996 defeat of the Keating government. Blair has been a Labor seat which does not draw its Labor seat from the archetypal progressive, urban Labor voter, it has instead come from a rapidly evapourating unionised blue-collar base. Polls dont decide elections voters do. Following the 2020 Census, some states may redraw their districts. He joined Gough Whitlams ministry in 1972, and served as Treasurer for the final five months of the Whitlam government in 1975. 2. Appreciate you sharing! Wont that diminish the main electoral threads ? Hanson was a prominent independent MP and, in 1997, founded the One Nation party in support of her political views. Cant see any likely scenario where Labor loses Blair. INEC Election Results So Far - INEC Presidential Election Results 2023 so far. Existing at Federation but abolished in 1934, Oxley was re-created when the Parliament was expanded at the 1949 election. Her hopes fell short at the 1998 election, where One Nation only managed to elect a single Senator, despite a national result of over 8%. are you a VICTORIAN, or some other sub-species. It is my observation that both major parties are underestimating the detrimental effects of government overreach during the last term. Leader of the Opposition, Brisbane City Council from 2012 to 2016. But its now not looking on the cards despite the narrow margin. Ipswich is over 60% of the seat unless the boundaries are different this is a reliable seat for Labor most times.With an expected alp swing in Queensland this is a Labor hold. Avica, 153 Gooding Drive, Merrimac, QLD 4226. It was 8 points wrong, So if we apply the same 8 point error to the current polls you get 61-39. I stand by it. Rachael Jacobs Candidate for Grayndler. Who are the candidates for election in 2022? And 1977 was affected by the 1975 circumstances. New streets and localities are continually being created by councils, and electoral boundaries may change. Oxley is located in south east Queensland, and covers the south western suburbs of Brisbane. It is also available to the public for the purpose of determining the federal division in which particular addresses, streets and localities are contained. They have a lot more to gain in targeting the remaining Lib seats in Melbourne and Adelaide. I agree some of my predictions are far fetched I admit that but you cannot day in all consciousness that the way the ALP is going under Albo that they are even competitive. Betting markets are clearly expecting a Labor tide in Queensland. You cant really compare it to the Hanson era seat. Antony Green is the ABC's Chief Elections Analyst. I also find it confusing that more rural areas are more prone to voting in favour of the LNP. Develop The 19.3% swing she achieved was the largest at the 1996 election and took Oxley out of Labor's fold. You can: Select a Federal Electorate for: the current member and party a map and profile of the electorate a list of all localities within that electorate Do you want to save current progress? Are you okay with that Ben? Learn how to enable Javascript in your browser. Also in terms of specifically Moreton, alot of the seat lines up with state seats with very solid Labor support (and strengthening). Hayden served as Member for Oxley for 27 years. Joint Standing: Electoral Matters served from 15.9.2016 to 11.4.2022; Joint Statutory: Broadcasting of Parliamentary Proceedings served as Chair from 26.7.2022 to present; Party positions. But if it remains below 50% TPP Labor could loose the Seat to either LNP or PHON. Recent polling indicates that a Teal candidate in Oxley will start the campaign only slightly behind the newly announced National candidate. A Des Moines Register analysis of decisions from the 2021-2022 term found that Oxley wrote or joined in the majority decision in 97 of 105 cases, more than any other justice. Authorised by Clive Palmer. Booths have been divided into five areas. This will have a smaller margin than Rankin at the next election, guaranteed. RESULTS AT 2019 ELECTION. 2022 federal election Division finder - NSW Division finder - Vic. I did the calculations for Blair. Surely?. As the great sage Richo says Never hang onto a mug. Gideon Rasmussen is a Cybersecurity Management Consultant with over 20 years of experience in corporate and military organizations. Some candidates subsequently amended their registration forms to reflect new district numbers. Home; News. The LNP's candidate for the relatively safe Labor seat of Oxley . cheers WD, Just to clarify something. Across the country voting patterns confirm that people want their MP to represent the community rather than the big parties. Federal politicians were understandably peeved last week when they learnt via text that Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk had banned them from returning home until September 8. Candidates are listed using information from their registration forms and may be running in different districts than in the past. Actually come up here to the marginale and Actually talk to voters which is something I have done and they will tell you. Those in the rural west of the council area have been grouped together. President of Federal Young Labor. I suggest Cook since its the most boring seat. Elected Official of the Australian Labor Party (Qld) from 2000 to 2008. Could it be that farmers are overusing the water that is available? Hansons seat of Oxley was won in 1998 by ALP candidate Bernie Ripoll, and he held the seat until his retirement in 2016. 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Than the big parties for 27 years in both seats sensitive information only on official, secure.... That increasingly in recent years the Chinese ethnic vote oxley federal electorate candidates 2022 increasingly been highly supportive of Red China candidate...